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The Nerve Gas Attack Described in White House Report Did Not Occur, Expert Says of Syria Incident

Posted on Apr 19, 2017

By Theodore A. Postol

(Page 2)

Although there were some walls and structures that would have somewhat weakened and inhibited the movement of the aerosol cloud from the release point, the open field would be an ideal stable wind environment to transmit the remaining sarin cloud with minimal distortion and dispersal. As such, with the weather conditions at that time, it is plausible that the sarin cloud could have led to mass casualties at the hamlet.

The sarin dosage level that results in 50 percent of exposed victims dying is known as the LD50. The LD50 for sarin is about 100 mg•min/m3.

The dose quantity mg•min/m3 can be understood simply.

An exposure of about 100 mg•min/m3 simply means that a victim is within an environment for one full minute when there is 100 mg/m3 of sarin in the air. If the victim is instead in an environment for 10 minutes where there is a density of sarin of 10 mg/m3, he or she will also receive a lethal dose of 100 mg•min/m3.

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Assuming 5 to 10 liters were aerosolized at the crater as alleged by the WHR, this would have resulted in an average sarin exposure at the hamlet at the 300-meter range of about 10 to 20 mg•min/m3, assuming wind and temperature conditions that are near ideal for lethal exposures downwind. This estimate assumes that an individual would be outside and exposed to the sarin as the gas cloud passes by.

Postulated movement of sarin aerosol and gas cloud in the local winds at 7 a.m. on April 4 from the release crater alleged by the WHR.

Video details of the release site taken from a small drone launched by a television crew.

Video details of the release site overlaid on a Google Earth image of the sarin release and casualty locations from the attack alleged by the WHR.

Details of the hamlet where mass casualties would have occurred if the WHR allegations were correct.

Since a cloud of sarin would not be uniformly mixed, there will be regions in the cloud that have much higher and lower doses than the average. In addition, as the cloud passes, sarin entering into open windows of aboveground and basement rooms would tend to become trapped inside these rooms, creating a significantly longer exposure to the nerve agent, certainly leading to lethal levels if residents did not evacuate the rooms immediately. Also, since the nerve agent cloud would be passing through an area that has buildings, it will tend to flow around and over buildings and down into open basement windows, resulting in buildups of sarin in some locations and diminished levels of sarin at other locations.

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